Futures Studies on the Regional Economic Development of Iran's Oceanic Coasts

Abstract

Regional development planning can be considered as a comprehensive approach to reduce regional inequalities. In recent decades, regional economic development planning has gained increased attention as a means to narrow the gap between regions. Given the importance of economic development in regions, particularly strategic coastal areas, and the necessity of utilizing futures studies to effectively manage and guide regional economic development planning, this study employs futures studies methodology to propose strategies for the regional economic development of Iran's oceanic coasts.

This study builds upon previous research titled "Identifying Key Drivers of Regional Economic Development of Iran's Oceanic Coasts." Initially, 54 important variables were identified through a literature review, and with the application of the MIC MAC foresight technique and input from 30 experts in the field, 8 key drivers were recognized. These drivers include: government macro-policies, social welfare and security, tourism and ecotourism, trade and commerce, regional transportation network, job creation, income levels, and inflation. Subsequently, this study employed foresight and scenario planning, using the Scenario Wizard method, to explore potential future scenarios for these identified drivers and to propose scenarios for the regional economic development of Iran's oceanic coasts. Similar to the previous research, the expertise of 30 specialists in the relevant field was utilized to weight the indices used in the study.

The scenarios presented in this study are categorized into three types: strong, plausible, and weak. The current research focuses on analyzing the plausible scenarios, which have the highest compatibility with the conditions of the studied region. In this study, 14 plausible scenarios are identified and grouped into two categories: "Spring" scenarios and "Autumn" scenarios. Among the "Spring" scenarios, scenarios 1 and 3 are considered to have better conditions compared to the others. The "Autumn" scenarios are regarded as undesirable scenarios with critical conditions. In this research, scenarios 13, 11, 12, and 14 are classified under the "Autumn" group.