Analysis and prediction of photovoltaic output power fluctuation based on plateau meteorological impact factor

Abstract

In order to study the characteristics of plateau photovoltaic (PV) output power, the fluctuation analysis and prediction of photovoltaic output power in one area of Tibet are performed in this paper, where the winter and summer seasons are focused, respectively. Meanwhile, the EEMD-BP model was established. Based on the fluctuation analysis and 15-day forecast of the output power of a PV power station in the examined area, six cases are categorized and evaluated. That is, the temperature is the average of the fluctuation, the irradiance is the change, the temperature is the change, the irradiance is the average of the fluctuation, the temperature is the change, and the irradiance is the change. The results show that when the temperature variation is only considered and the irradiance is the average value of the fluctuation in the winter, the PV output power is more accurate and the fluctuation is close to the original value; when the temperature variation and the irradiance variation is considered in the summer, the output power has the best prediction accuracy and smooth fluctuations.