The Impact of Government Macro-Control on Commodity Housing Prices in China: An Analytical Study

Abstract

The Chinese government has implemented macro-control measures to stabilize soaring housing prices, yet the effectiveness of these interventions remains largely unexamined. This study evaluates the impact of macroeconomic policies on commodity housing prices by considering both supply and demand factors and aims to construct a concise, robust simulation model. This model will serve as a reference for the government in establishing a systematic, strategic, and enduring macro-control mechanism for the real estate sector. Our model integrates four key variables: development/consumption stage tax rates, lending rates, and land prices, to simulate their collective influence on commercial housing prices. The findings indicate that: (1) the development stage tax rate and loan interest rates significantly enhance prices, demonstrating a strong positive feedback, whereas the consumption stage tax rate exerts a minimal negative impact; (2) land price exhibits the most substantial positive feedback effect on housing prices, primarily from the supply side; (3) adjusting land prices through land policy and modulating the development stage tax rate through tax policy are crucial for managing real estate development effectively; (4) a combined approach of adjusting land and development stage tax rates, supported by monetary policy, can significantly enhance the effectiveness of China’s real estate macro-policy regulation.